منابع مشابه
Determinants of confirmation.
Epistemologists often suppose that the extent to which evidence e confirms hypothesis H depends on probabilities involving e and H, and nothing more. We show experimentally that human reasoners sometimes violate this assumption.
متن کاملOn the determinants of the conjunction fallacy: probability versus inductive confirmation.
Major recent interpretations of the conjunction fallacy postulate that people assess the probability of a conjunction according to (non-normative) averaging rules as applied to the constituents' probabilities or represent the conjunction fallacy as an effect of random error in the judgment process. In the present contribution, we contrast such accounts with a different reading of the phenomenon...
متن کاملConfirmation of parametric hypotheses
Econometricians commonly want to confirm some precise hypothesis, such as a consequence of economic theory, an economic hypothesis, or a econometric modeling assumption. In practice, researchers routinely use significance tests that can only fail to reject the hypothesis of interest. Generalizing previous work by Romano (2005), I propose a new theoretical framework for confirmation of multivari...
متن کاملThe Paradox of Confirmation
Idea: E [∼Ra &∼Ba] confirms H [(∀x)(Rx ⊃ Bx)] relative to >, but E doesn’t confirm H relative to some background K ≠ >. Question: Which K ≠ >? Answer: K = ∼Ra. Idea: If you already know that ∼Ra, then observing a’s color won’t tell you anything about the color of ravens. Distinguish the following two claims: (PC) ∼Ra &∼Ba confirms (∀x)(Rx ⊃ Bx), relative to >. (PC*) ∼Ra &∼Ba confirms (∀x)(Rx ⊃ ...
متن کاملHempel.s logic of confirmation
This paper presents a new analysis of e.G. Hempel's conditions of adequacy for any relation of confirmation [Hempel C. G. (1945). Aspects of scientific explanation and other essays in the philosophy of science. New York: The Free Press, pp. 3-51.], differing from the one Camap gave in §87 of his [1962. Logical/ounthltions a/probability (2nd ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.]. Hempel, ...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Psychonomic Bulletin & Review
سال: 2007
ISSN: 1069-9384,1531-5320
DOI: 10.3758/bf03194115